The Debate: Would a pact with Reform save the Conservative Party?
New polling shows almost half the Conservative Party supports a merger with Reform, so is it time to unite the right? We put two political commentators head to head in this week’s Debate
YES: First Past the Post rewards concentrated support and punishes fragmentation
There is a credible case for a Conservative–Reform pact of some sort. In Britain’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system (especially in today’s multi-party landscape) vote-splitting on the right will likely turn many close contests into easy Labour wins. FPTP rewards concentrated support and punishes fragmentation; that is the stark way it operates. In many constituencies the Conservatives now risk functioning as the “smaller party” in a Labour–Reform–Conservative triangle. The way to beat the system (as any Liberal Democrat veteran will attest) is to concentrate the vote and simplify the choice for voters.
A pact, either formal or, more plausibly, informal, does exactly that. By agreeing where to stand and where to stand aside, the right can narrow the choice set in key battlegrounds, turning three-way scraps into head-to-heads. If you judge that desperate times call for desperate measures, and that the party faces an existential question, one route to survival is to identify 50–100 seats where a non-aggression understanding with Reform maximises the chances of finishing ahead of Labour and banking another constituency for a right-of-centre bloc.
This would require discipline, local association buy-in, and clear voter messaging (“one candidate to beat Labour”), but the logic is straightforward: fewer split votes, more efficient conversions, better odds in marginals. The risks such as brand dilution in liberal-leaning areas and potential losses to the Liberal Democrats are very real, yet they can be managed through careful seat selection. Under FPTP, strategy is destiny; concentrating the right-of-centre vote where it counts most could be the difference between a rout and a platform for recovery.
Tom Lubbock is a pollster and co-founder of JL Partners
NO: Reform wants to tear up British institutions. There’s nothing conservative about that
I struggle to find a word to describe the atmosphere here at Conservative Party conference because no one has yet held a funeral for a zombie. With dire polling and a lethargic leader, many argue that the only way to revive conservatism in Britain is to “unite the right” via a Conservative-Reform pact. I think there are three arguments against this.
The first is that Nigel Farage should not be Prime Minister. He is a brilliant communicator and a consequential figure who has stuck to principles where others on the right have not. But the chaotic history of UKIP, the party he led on and off for two decades, suggests he can’t manage a team. The last thing Britain needs is another Boris Johnson-style Downing Street driven by squabbling and resentment. To command a majority in parliament, a Prime Minister must inspire loyalty – there is little evidence Farage is capable of that.
Second, the Conservative Party can only succeed as long as it is the party of business. Reform’s economic agenda is all over the place – renationalising the steel industry on the one hand and massive tax cuts for the wealthy on the other. Moreover, a Reform election win would be a revolution in British politics. Business values stability above all, which is why the centuries-old Conservative Party still commands the most trust on the economy. A Reform pact would damage this reputation.
Third, Reform may have won arguments on festering issues like illegal migration, but how else does it want to change Britain? It seems to wish to tear things up rather than protect enduring British institutions. There is nothing conservative about that.
Alys Denby is deputy comment and features editor at Morning Wire
THE VERDICT
Much has been written about the turquoise threat looming over both Labour and the Conservatives, and how both parties should duly confront it. But for the Tories, there are now increasing murmurings about working with, rather than against, Reform UK.
According to a YouGov poll out this week, nearly two thirds of Conservative Party members want a pact with Reform UK, while 46 per cent support a full merger of the parties, so a deal with the devil may not be as controversial as perhaps previously imagined. With the Conservatives’ reputation in tatters, and a poll position that shows it, a radical move like partnering with Reform (currently leading the polls) could bring the party back from the brink, at least electorally.
But, as Ms Denby alludes to, when we talk about “saving the Tory party”, we mean more than just protecting seats. When it comes to the core values of small-c conservatism, Reform simply does not measure up. The tragedy of Faust is an old story we know the ending to. The Conservatives must stand their ground.