Tories will become irrelevant if they keep losing in London
If the Conservative party can no longer rely on the votes of the Yuppies of today, it will have to become a very different beast to have any chance of continued relevance, says John Oxley
The year might have only just begun, but already London’s big political battle is on the horizon. May will see local elections across the capital, and the city will become a key battleground in the reshaping of British politics. In the more central boroughs, Labour’s dominance will be challenged by an advancing Green Party and independent groups. Reform will be setting its sights on the outer boroughs, and this could be an existential moment for the London Conservatives.
It now seems hard to believe, but for many years, London was a Tory stronghold. At every election from 1979 to 1992, the party outperformed its national average in the capital. At the high point of 1987, the Tories took 49 of the parliamentary seats in the capital. With a deftly chosen route, you could have traversed from Croydon to Barnet without leaving the embrace of Tory territory.
Outermost reaches
Now all that is just a memory. The Conservatives hold just nine seats, all on the outermost reaches of the Tube network. They have not closely challenged for the mayoralty since Boris Johnson’s second victory in 2012 and have seen their presence on councils fall across the capital. And 2026 could mark a further decline, with Reform set to compete in the outer boroughs.
The problem for London Conservatives is a more intense version of their struggles across the country. Their appeal to working-age voters, even the more affluent ones, has collapsed in the wake of Brexit and a failure to address the financial pressures on families and housing. Meanwhile, Reform has hived off the support of retired, more socially conservative voters. This makes it hard to compete in London’s demographics.
When the Conservatives were strong in the capital, they could rely on both. The Yuppies were a creation of Thatcherism and repaid her by voting Tory. Now the culture has swept the other way, with support for the Conservatives diminishing even among well-paid City workers. The Conservatives struggle among home-owning families and ambitious professionals. Losing the retirees of the outer boroughs could be the end for them in London. Changing it requires more than hope; it needs a plan to deliver for voters in the capital.
The party must adapt to how London has changed. It needs an offering on housing that supports the ambitions of young workers, and an understanding of the impact of childcare costs on even high-earning families. The Conservatives also need to adapt to a more diverse capital, including in professional jobs, than ever before. When it was strong in the city, it was because the party championed the interests of those who lived and worked here.
The stakes go beyond the internal health and success of the London Conservatives. A centre-right party that becomes estranged from the highest-earning, most economically productive parts of the country is in a real existential crisis. If the party cannot convince these voters that it can deliver prosperity and growth, it has little chance elsewhere. It risks becoming totally detached from growth, openness and economic activity.
Becoming electorally alienated from the capital will make the route back to relevance harder. It will cost them valuable seats and councils, but also dampen their connection to our modern, global economy. If the party can no longer rely on the votes of the Yuppies of today, it will have to become a very different beast to have any chance of continued relevance.
If the Conservatives decline in London, they will be ousted from the place where political and economic power converge. For a centre-right party, that is not a comfortable place to be and bodes ill for future success. Failure this year would signal not just local weakness, but a drift into irrelevance.
John Oxley is a political commentator