What areas can England exploit in their World Cup semi-final with New Zealand?
It has been a while since England beat the All Blacks – seven years to be precise – but last year’s narrow 16-15 defeat at Twickenham was the first time they had played since 2014.
In the 11 months since, both teams have come a long way. On Saturday, ranked as the No1 and No2 sides in the world, they will go head to head in a Rugby World Cup semi-final.
It is a clash which would have made for an ultimate final, but if England are to lift the Webb Ellis Cup they were always going to have to go through New Zealand.
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Eddie Jones hailed the All Blacks as “the greatest team that has ever been in sport” this week, but also maintained that they are “beatable”.
“They’re a great side, we know that. They’ve got a 90 per cent winning record since the World Cup,” Jones said. “But, like any team, there are areas you can get at and our job this week is to find those areas, and be able to execute it.”
Mental strength
One area Jones clearly feels they could be vulnerable is mentally. He claimed all the pressure is on New Zealand as they search for a third successive World Cup.
“No-one thinks we can win. New Zealand talk about walking towards pressure – well, this week the pressure is going to be chasing them down the street,” he said. “The busiest bloke in Tokyo this week will be Gilbert Enoka, their mental skills coach.”
He also accused someone of spying on their training sessions – which he also did when head coach of the Wallabies before their semi-final win over New Zealand in 2003 – and claimed there are 120m Japanese fans “whose second team are the All Blacks.”
Whether those mind games have any impact remains to be seen, but on the field there are areas England can take advantage of too.
Kicking
One of England’s best strengths is their kick-and-chase game and utilising this on Saturday will be crucial.
At Twickenham 11 months ago Owen Farrell’s kick-off led to Chris Ashton’s early try and it will be vital England kick accurately throughout the 80 minutes to pin the All Blacks back and maintain territory.
England will have undoubtedly analysed which areas are most likely to reap rewards from kicks. As good as full-back Beauden Barrett is, opportunities could present themselves by virtue of his dovetailing with No10 Richie Mo’unga, while 22-year-old Sevu Reece has been relatively untested under the high-ball so far.
Winger Reece makes up a youthful backline, which also includes Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown and George Bridge, all of whom are 24.
England will hold an advantage here in terms of experience and it may raise questions of the All Blacks’ ability to cope in a game of this magnitude.
While that may be true, it is also true they possess enormous quality as individuals and collectively, and with that in mind, England will need to disrupt their slick passing game as much as possible.
Slowing the breakdown
Stopping the quick ball from breakdowns was something Ireland failed to do in their quarter-final last weekend, and it was a factor which contributed to their downfall.
This challenge will largely come down to flankers Sam Underhill and Tom Curry, who performed so well last week against Australia. They will come up against the in-form Ardie Savea and Sam Crane who lost just five of their 105 attacking rucks last weekend.
England must be aggressive but not over-commit, or risk exposing their defence.
One tactic England could adopt is for scrum-half Ben Youngs to man-mark his opposite number Aaron Smith. This is a tactic South Africa No9 Faf de Klerk has enjoyed some success with, applying continual pressure to Smith in their previous encounters.
Line-out opportunities
From set-pieces England have plenty of strengths too and while the New Zealand scrum looks fairly solid, the line-out could be a good opportunity for England to gain territory.
Maro Itoje led the line-out against the Wallabies and blindside flanker Curry has become increasingly used as a jumper. However, Jones might be tempted to recall line-out specialist George Kruis to the team to bolster England’s options, after Courtney Lawes was preferred against Australia.
Last November the All Blacks turned the tables on England’s line-out during the second-half with five steals and England must make sure their strategy is watertight this time around.
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Another aspect of last year’s match that benefitted England was the bad weather. The torrential rain also played into the hands of the British and Irish Lions in 2017, limiting New Zealand’s slick passing, and Jones may hope the weather Gods are looking down on him again in Yokohama.
While the weather, much like the psychological stability of New Zealand, will not be in England’s hands, there are bound to be opportunities for Jones’s team to take advantage.
“They’re human. They bleed, they drop balls, they miss tackles like every other player,” Jones said. “We can just go out there and play our game. If we’re good enough we’ll win; if we’re not good enough we’ve done our best.”