Wimbledon 2016: Omens are positive for Andy Murray but stats against Novak Djokovic highlight task ahead
At first glance, the omens are positive for Andy Murray ahead of this year's Wimbledon: the successful partnership with Ivan Lendl has been rekindled, an unprecedented fifth Queen's title has been won and a kind draw means Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be avoided until the final.
It's the exact same set of circumstances that preceded the world No2's historic triumph in 2013, when he beat Djokovic in the final to end a 77-year men's singles title drought at the All England Club.
Yet if there's one ingredient that has changed in that time, it's the steely-eyed spectre of Djokovic who now looms over Murray after transforming into a near-unstoppable winning machine.
Beating Djokovic was one thing in 2013, it is a much more daunting prospect three years after he has doubled his grand slam title haul to 12 while Murray is still stuck on two.
Before vanquishing the world No1 in the 2013 final, Murray boasted a 39 per cent win percentage against the Serb.
Yet his win record against Djokovic now stands at 29 per cent after winning just twice in the pair's 15 encounters since — a win ratio of just 13 per cent.
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Furthermore, when the two met on centre court in 2013, they were separated by gap of 3,160 ATP ranking points. That gap has since opened up into a chasm of 8,035 points despite both men again occupying the No1 and No2 spots.
Such is Djokovic's dominance, Murray is closer in ranking points to world No53 Carlos Berankis than he is to the reigning Wimbledon champion.
And there's more bad news for fans hoping for a fiesta on Murray Mount next month: Murray hasn't even been unlucky in his recent losses to Djokovic. In fact, the data suggests Djokovic is now more dominant than ever before.
Murray's dominance ratio against Djokovic, a measure of a player’s percentage of return points won against percentage of serve points lost, has been at an average of 0.798 in the three years since that fateful final compared to a score of 0.97 in the years before.