YouGov shares tank 35 per cent after it lowers forecasts
YouGov shares plunged as much as 35 per cent on Wednesday after it downgraded its revenue and profit forecasts as sales bookings came in lower than expected.
The company, which provides polling and market research to some of the world’s biggest brands, now expects its full-year 2024 revenue to be about £324m to £327m, down from the £650m “medium term” it predicted in March. It anticipates adjusted operating profit to be £41m to £44m.
In the six months to January 2024, YouGov reported revenue growth of nine per cent to £143.1m and adjusted operating profit up by 23 per cent to £27.9m. It had said it expected medium-term adjusted operating profit margin of 25 per cent.
“While we have seen an improvement in the second half, the growth was below expectations,” YouGov said on Thursday.
It noted sales in its data products division were still slower than expected, and it had continued to see declines in demand for fast-turnaround research services.
Trading in the EMEA region was particularly difficult, especially in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.
It comes after the London-listed firm hiked its revenue guidance in March, up from a prior forecast of £500m, following two acquisitions, even though its chief executive had flagged “challenging” market conditions.
It snapped up German market research firm GfK’s Consumer Panel Business for €315m (£270.1m) in January and also acquired the US-based survey group KnowledgeHound for an undisclosed amount earlier that month.
YouGov said today that one of these acquisitions, of German Consumer Panel Services (CPS) business, is doing well, but some of the revenue will not be recorded until next year.
It is planning to invest in key growth areas, including upgrading its data products and expanding its artificial intelligence capabilities. The stock has fallen 33 per cent year to date.
Peel Hunt analysts have rated YouGov a ‘buy’ but said today they plan to revise their forecasts in due course after the “disappointing” statement today.
“The shares have tumbled by c.25% since the 1H results in March, suggesting that the market had been anticipating a downgrade. However, today’s downgrade is larger than we expected,” they explained.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould pointed out that, although casual observers might assume that the election might give YouGov a boost, its polling operation is not where the company makes money.
“The data analytics side is more important and this is where the company is struggling,” he explained. “The company invested for an expected acceleration of growth in the second half of its financial year which, in classic fashion, failed to materialise.
“This may reduce some of the clamour for the company to move its listing to the US in search of a higher rating. The one reassuring element of the announcement is the recently acquired consumer panel business is performing as expected,” Mould added.