Bath to win Premiership rugby title, Falcons to finish bottom
It feels as though Northampton Saints only just lifted the Premiership trophy but we’ve already reached the eve of this year’s campaign.
We’ve got a new coach in Leicester Tigers boss Michael Cheika, who I worked with at Stade Francais, and renewed ambitions. And we’ve also got the chance of seeing a sixth different winner in six seasons.
That demonstrates the competitiveness of this league and its ability to enthral fans across the country.
Premiership top four
But I think we will see last year’s losing finalist Bath return to Twickenham this year, and they will do so as favourites for the title.
They’ve steadily built and progressed in the Johann van Graan era and, led by Finn Russell at No10, they’re going to go all the way.
Northampton Saints are still a great outfit and I back them to maintain their position in the top four but I don’t think they’ll reach the final. They’ve simply lost too many bodies – David Ribbans, Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam, to name a few – to compete with the depth they were able to field last season and we could see a slight drop-off.
My other pick, alongside Bath, for a home semi-final would be Sale Sharks. Alex Sanderson’s outfit have been building well and, despite not repeating their 2022 feat of reaching the final, are a solid team.
They’re putting together a strong run of seasons and becoming consistent contenders which is half of the job in Premiership Rugby – reaching the playoffs gives you a chance at glory, no matter whether you are home or away.
And my fourth pick for the semi-finals? Exeter Chiefs. Despite their exodus of players before last season Rob Baxter’s Chiefs, centred around England international Henry Slade, were superb across the park.
They have recruited well and, combined with the experience their young guns now have in their legs, they’re bound to be better than last season. In the 2023-24 campaign they were seventh. I wouldn’t put them that low this time around.
In the middle
That means both London clubs, Saracens and Harlequins, and the likes of Leicester Tigers and Bristol Bears miss out on my top four.
There is so much change at Saracens that they’re quite simply an unknown entity at this point and I am not sure Harlequins have quite replaced the quality they have lost in the summer.
Bristol Bears were a surprise package at the end of last season having been abysmal at the start of it. They’ve lost a couple of names and shipped a lot of their stalwarts out, choosing to back incoming youth instead. Like Saracens they feel like a little bit of an unknown.
Cheika’s Tigers could be a fun spanner in the works; they’re fresh and the former Wallabies boss will simply love the Premiership. They’re my ones to watch from that viewpoint.
Lowly Premiership duo
But I do think we will see Gloucester and Newcastle Falcons lingering in and around the bottom three again.
For the Cherry and Whites it always feels like they’re due a solid season but time and time again it has not come. Head coach George Skivington has given himself the excuse of saying he is rolling the dice with their playing style already, and I am not sure whether that bodes well or not.
Falcons will probably be my pick for the potential relegation play-off. I have no doubt they will be a vastly improved outfit compared to the one that finished last year’s campaign winless, but whether Steve Diamond can close the gap to the other nine teams – last season a 27-points deficit – remains to be seen.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11