Boris Johnson: What is a Tory no confidence vote, how does it work and why is it happening?
Boris Johnson will face a vote of no confidence in his leadership of the Conservative party at 6pm today, after 54 or more MPs declared they no longer had confidence in the Prime Minister.
Morning Wire takes a look at what the vote is, why it was triggered and what might happen next.
What is a vote of no confidence?
A sitting Conservative party leader can only be deposed by MPs through a straight yes-no vote on whether they still hold confidence in their leader.
It was triggered by at least 54 Conservative MPs sending letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady – the chair of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers.
There are currently 359 Tory MPs sitting in parliament, meaning that 180 will need to vote against Johnson to remove him, after just under three years in the post.
Why was it triggered?
Dissatisfaction within the Tory ranks with Johnson as PM has steadily grown over the past nine months and has hit breaking point thanks to the partygate scandal.
The release of the Sue Gray report into the saga clearly showed a pattern of brazen Covid rule breaking across Number 10, with the senior civil servant putting the blame on Johnson for overseeing a toxic culture in Downing Street.
Johnson apologised for the scandal, but insisted he did not know the litany of lockdown-busting events were against his own Covid rules.
A steady trickle of Conservative MPs have come out against Johnson in the week and a half since the release of the Gray report, with rumours that up to 67 letters of no confidence were sent to Sir Graham Brady.
There has also been unease among Tory MPs about Johnson’s policy platform, which has seen the government increase the tax burden to its highest level in seven decades and rack up record spending deficits during Covid.
Former close Johnson ally Jesse Norman today said: “Under you the government seems to lack a sense of mission. It has a large majority, but no long-term plan.
“Rather, you are simply seeking to campaign, to keep changing the subject and to create political and cultural dividing lines mainly for your advantage.”
The Tories’ poor results in the latest polling has made MPs in marginal constituencies increasingly nervous as they worry about potentially losing their seat at the 2024 election.
When will we know the result?
The vote will happen between 6pm and 8pm today.
It is expected that the result will take around 30 minutes to process, with a result to be announced by Brady around 8.30pm.
What happens if Johnson wins?
If Johnson wins today then he is safe from another challenge for one year, however he may be permanently wounded by the vote.
Ex-Prime Minister Theresa May won a vote of confidence in December 2018, but saw 37 per cent of Tory MPs vote against her.
The split in the party turned out to be terminal for May as she could not get her Brexit deal through parliament and was forced to resign just six months after winning her vote.
Johnson may face a similar unmanageable situation if he wins, but still has 100+ MPs vote against him.
What happens if he loses?
If he is defeated then a contest will resume for the next leader of the Conservative party and UK Prime Minister, with the process to take up to six weeks to complete.
A wide field of contenders is likely if Johnson is defeated today, with MPs such as Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt expected to run.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak was long considered to be the heir apparent to the throne, however a series of stories about his wife’s tax status and his response to the cost of living crisis has dented his public approval ratings.
He was also handed a police fine for breaking Covid rules, alongside Johnson.
Star Sports has Johnson at 1/3 to win the vote and 3/1 to lose it.