Brandt a Wise bet against Mullins in Scottish National
BEFORE Grand National day last Saturday Dan Skelton seemingly had the British Trainers’ Championship sewn up, with the Warwickshire-based trainer over £1 million clear of his nearest rivals.
However, after an astounding result in the Grand National, the most valuable race of the Jumps season, which saw Irish maestro Willie Mullins saddle the 1-2-3-5 home, that margin has been reduced to little over £120,000.
Reigning champion Mullins has remarkably reignited the title race with three weeks of the season remaining and the valuable Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr this weekend is set to be the next port of call for his fleet.
Mullins currently has 11 entered in the Scottish National (3.35pm) – worth a total of £200,000 – and he could use the scattergun approach that worked last season when Macdermott won at 18/1.
Chosen Witness has been the big gamble for the race, having shortened from 16/1 into just 9/2, and there’s every chance he could be very well treated off a mark of 137.
On form it’s not so easy to make a case for him though and there’s certainly no value in his price so I’m happy to let him run unbacked.
Working out which of the Mullins contenders will perform best is tricky and I think their presence in the market could mean other horses fly under the radar.
That looks to be the case with the Cian Collins-trained BRANDT, who is likely to get in at the bottom of the weights and looks seriously overpriced at 40/1.
He’s only a seven-year-old and is on the improve for his up-and-coming trainer who celebrated a big win at Cheltenham last month.
Brandt comes into this after a career-best win at Leopardstown, where he looked to relish every inch of the three-mile-four-furlong trip.
That was the first time he had attempted a marathon distance and he looked as though he would appreciate further still.
Likely good ground at Ayr should suit him too, and I can see him producing a good run, so wouldn’t put anyone off an each-way bet.
Another that looks to have been overlooked in the market is Nicky Henderson’s WISEGUY.
Good ground appears key to this son of Fame And Glory who proved he had a decent engine when winning the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Chase at Newbury back in November.
He has since run nice races when stepped up in trip, keeping on well behind Victtorino over three miles at Ascot and then when plugging on for seventh in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
This step up in trip on good ground should suit him, and I’ve got a feeling he could be well-handicapped off 129.
A price of 28/1 looks far too big so he’s another each-way pick.
The Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.15pm) is worth a total of £100,000 and is another race Mullins is targeting with some big guns.
County Hurdle winner Kargese looks the most likely winner, but she has gone up eight pounds for that impressive win and that might mean there isn’t much between her and stablemate Ethical Diamond, who finished fourth in the County.
The thing about the Mullins horses is that while they may be the best on form, they haven’t been targeted at this contest, whereas Paul Nicholls’ KABRAL DU MATHAN looks to have been.
He’s been kept fresh for this race since finishing second in a competitive handicap hurdle at Windsor in January and is set to line up off an unchanged handicap mark.
He was beaten a short-head at Ascot the time before that, so has some excellent form for a horse that has only had five starts.
At around 6/1, we’re getting some good value against the Mullins horses here too.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Kabral Du Mathan e/w 2.15pm Ayr
Brandt e/w 3.35pm Ayr
Wiseguy e/w 3.35pm Ayr