Back to the 1970s: Globalisation will force UK’s hand over export shortfall January 13, 2014 FOR MOST of the past century, UK economic growth has depended primarily on consumer spending and housing. Indeed, the current recovery is heavily driven by these two factors – even though the shape of this revival is gradually changing. But globalisation brings new challenges. We have to pay for much more expensive energy and raw [...]
Technology and the minimum wage: A big rise could harm the lowest skilled January 13, 2014 POLITICIANS of all parties, including Treasury minister Sajid Javid, have stated that there’s a strong case for a significant increase in the minimum wage. Their arguments were perhaps best summarised in a blog by Paul Kirby, the former head of the Number 10 Policy Unit. His economic case for a big rise is based on [...]
Britain must do more to accelerate exploitation of its vast shale potential January 13, 2014 TO SUPPORT the development of its huge shale potential, Britain desperately needs the backing of investors, local communities, and local government. The stakes are high – with the slow demise of the North Sea, we face rising import bills, a rapidly declining tax base and, as last year’s dispute at the Grangemouth refinery warned us, [...]
Letters to the editor – 14/01 – Cheap money, Housing crunch, Best of Twitter January 13, 2014 Cheap money [Re: Raise interest rates gradually or risk a much sharper swing of the pendulum, Friday] We need to ask ourselves what kind of a recovery is consistent with near-zero interest rates worldwide and continued quantitative easing (QE) in the US. If the US economy is adding hundreds of billions of dollars to GDP [...]
The three geopolitical red herrings that won’t spook markets this year January 12, 2014 EACH year, we release our Top Risks report, where we consider the ten biggest geopolitical threats to markets and economies, judged by probability and potential impact. What’s at the top of our list for 2014? Uncertainties about America’s foreign policy and China’s ambitious domestic reforms create the potential for volatility and surprises this year and, [...]
City Matters: Why the City will lose out if its fails to capitalise on London’s diversity January 12, 2014 EAGLE-EYED City workers may have already spotted this, but there are some slightly unusual adverts on the side of their buses this year. Alongside the regular adverts for London attractions and products, three buses have been specially wrapped to enable 34 organisations to proclaim that “We are all dedicated to diversity”. While commuters can be [...]
How the EU has used the environment as a protectionist weapon January 12, 2014 THE EU has long claimed a reputation as a promoter of free trade – for breaking down boundaries, and allowing capital and goods to flow across borders without hindrance. But protectionism hasn’t disappeared; it’s just taken on a more subtle form. The EU has been using the environment as a trade weapon. Late last year, [...]
Letters to the Editor – 13/01 – Why we don’t save, Best of Twitter January 12, 2014 Why we don’t save [Re: Our pension system is broken. We must tear it up and start again, Friday] Thie author’s comparison of Britain’s pension system with Australia’s is interesting and informative. But there are several blocks towards encouraging a savings mindset in Britain. First, there is no safeguard against misappropriation in the future. Secondly, [...]
Raise interest rates gradually or risk a much sharper swing of the pendulum January 9, 2014 FOR A given level of inflation, an economy has an “equilibrium” real interest rate. For around 125 years, it has been understood that trying to use policy to manipulate actual interest rates below the equilibrium rate for any sustained length of time will lead either to constantly accelerating inflation or to a growth boom-bust (or [...]
The Long View: Stop speaking like a corporate robot – for the sake of capitalism itself January 9, 2014 HERE’S a new year’s resolution for business: learn to speak human. The state of business language as a whole remains an abiding scandal. HSBC’s coinage of “demising” as a euphemism for “sacking” led last year’s pack, but corporate statements that resemble something delivered by an alien with a glitchy translator are hardly rare. I’ve written [...]