2014: The year to start a proper debate on what the welfare state is for January 6, 2014 GEORGE Osborne has been quick to define 2014’s political agenda. He indicated yesterday what the Conservatives’ offer at the next election is likely to be: completion of deficit reduction in a lower-tax, lower-spend way than Labour, buttressed with continued school reform and tighter control of immigration and welfare. Osborne laid down a challenge to his [...]
Why annuities switching is likely to cause serious problems for UK insurers January 6, 2014 WE HAVE little detail of pensions minister Steve Webb’s proposals to allow pensioners to switch between annuity providers in the same way that they can switch between mortgages. However, at first sight, his ideas provide more evidence that the coalition made a serious error in appointing somebody so far to the political left to such [...]
Letters to the Editor – 07/01 – Space travel, Best of Twitter January 6, 2014 Space travel [Re: Which technological development will see the most game-changing advances in 2014?, yesterday] Commercial space travel could be the most exciting technological development this year. In 2013, we saw the final technical pieces of the complex jigsaw puzzle for our human spaceflight programme fall into place. Early-2014 will see our pilots further expanding the [...]
Global Politics: India and Mexico will rise as Europe dies but the US will reinvent itself once again January 5, 2014 I HAVE long strongly advocated a modest proposal for my clients regarding global political risk: judge analysts as you would a plumber. If we do a good job, rehire us. If not, show us the door. For only by assessing real world outcomes can clients separate snake oil salesmen from the real thing. As I [...]
The World Economy: Why forward-looking markets may soon start to anticipate a difficult 2015 January 5, 2014 GLOBAL growth picked up in 2013, ending the year at a solid pace. This strength should carry over into early 2014, but momentum is likely to wane. The global economy may be entering the late stage of the cycle, characterised by rising capacity constraints, increased inflationary pressure and tightening liquidity. Monetary trends predicted recent economic [...]
British Politics: The 2014 events that will settle the next election January 5, 2014 WE ARE in a state of unusually high political uncertainty. By this stage in the electoral cycle, one usually has a sense of who the next winner is likely to be. But this time we have a high level of unpredictability. The 2015 election will be the first ever with the date known well in [...]
Letters to the Editor – 06/01 – Gold speculation, Payday lending, Best of Twitter January 5, 2014 Gold speculation [Re: Here’s why Capital Economics thinks gold will bounce back this year, Thursday] Buying gold at current prices is speculation, and not just over the potential removal of Indian import restrictions. Its price tells you about fear in an economy at any given point – and there just isn’t that fear around that [...]
Monetary Policy: Why 2014 should be a turning point for western economies January 5, 2014 SINCE the 1970s, years ending with a 4 have seen turning points in the global economy and had a particular significance for central bankers. This year is the fortieth anniversary of 1974. This was the most turbulent post-war year for the major western economies before the global financial crisis. The first recession in the global [...]
Investment Trends: A year for stock-pickers: 2014 investment winners and losers January 5, 2014 AFTER a surprisingly strong 2013 in many equity markets, I am cautiously optimistic for 2014. One of the key reasons for my slight wariness is that most of the predictions I am reading at the moment are unambiguously positive. There is an unusual consensus around a generally bullish outlook for stock markets, in particular those [...]
2013 Christmas quiz – The Answers December 20, 2013 1. Between spring and autumn 2013, which of these countries received the largest upgrade to its 2013 GDP growth forecast from the IMF? a. Indiab. United Statesc. United Kingdom ANSWER – United Kingdom. In April, the IMF forecast the UK would grow by 0.7 per cent in 2013. By October, the IMF had raised this [...]