Don’t expect a Changingoftheguard in world’s oldest Classic at Doncaster
AIDAN O’Brien has already won the Ladbrokes St Leger on three occasions with Milan (2001), Brian Boru (2003) and Scorpion (2005), and the master of Ballydoyle can make it win number four with Ebor runner-up CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD.
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Johnny Murtagh at York, with his mount rearing up as the stalls opened and then finding a nightmare passage in the home straight. However, he managed to thread his way through in the final half furlong and only failed to collar Sesenta by a head. He liked the quick ground that day, showed a good turn of foot and was doing his best work at the finish, so will surely appreciate this step up in trip.
Godolphin have won the world’s oldest Classic four times and Kite Wood looks likely to go off favourite. He is a decent animal and if the rain had arrived, I would have been very sweet on his chances, but he seems to prefer some juice in the ground and I’d be inclined to lay him on Betdaq. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Great Voltigeur winner Monitor Closely is a doubtful stayer, Father Time was disappointing last time and Mourayan needs rain badly. That leaves us with Mastery, Godolphin’s second string, and I think he has a decent each-way chance. He ran well at York last time and is another who will like the extra two furlongs.
Elsewhere on Saturday’s Doncaster card and it will be extremely interesting to see how O’Brien’s VISCOUNT NELSON runs in the Champagne Stakes at 1.55pm. There isn’t a better bred horse in training (by Giant’s Causeway out of Imagine) and he is reportedly one of the stable’s best two-year-olds. He has yet to encounter good decent racing ground and is apparently a different horse when he hears his hooves rattle. I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off taking some of the 33/1 available about him winning next year’s Derby.
The Portland Handicap (2.25pm) is one of the trickiest sprint handicaps of the season, but I’m going to have a few quid on David Barron’s JACONET. She annihilated a decent field at Lingfield last week, has an excellent draw and with Kieren Fallon booked, the 10/1 with Boylesports should be snapped up.
The best bet of the weekend though comes in the 5.30pm at Goodwood, when John Gosden’s INVISIBLE MAN has to win to get into the Cambridgeshire. I strongly believe he will do just that.
Those that cannot wait until tomorrow for a bet could do a lot worse than back GEORDIELAND to win today’s Doncaster Cup at 2.40pm. He looks to have the Marcus Tregoning-trained Askar Tau to beat, but is a confident selection.
Finally, ante-post punters must back Luca Cumani’s SETA at around 10/1 for next year’s 1,000 Guineas before she runs in this afternoon’s May Hill. I have to say that I have never been more taken by a filly on debut than I was when she made a winning start to her career at Newmarket last month. She is far too short to back today, but if she does win as well as I expect her to, she will be much shorter for the Guineas after the race.
Pointers…
GEORDIELAND (2.40pm, Doncaster, today)
VISCOUNT NELSON (1.55pm, Doncaster, tomorrow)
JACONET E/W (2.25pm, Doncaster, tomorrow)
CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (3pm, Doncaster, tomorrow)
INVISIBLE MAN (5.30pm, Goodwood, tomorrow)
SETA Ante-post 1,000 Guineas