Gary’s Economics predictions are unravelling
The new year is a great time to check whether past predictions have stood the test of time. So I revisited the forecasts of one of London’s better-known economic sooth-sayers, Gary Stevenson, known to you and me as Gary’s Economics thanks to his viral Youtube channel.
Two years ago, almost to the day, Gary released a video laying out his prognostications for the UK’s housing market.
“As interest rates come down…rich people will stop being content to sit on this enormous pile of cash, they’ll go back to buying assets [and] drive up house prices,” he said.
“So I think we’re moving into the next stage of this now which is another really really aggressive asset price inflation including house prices.”
He went on to predict the collapse of the middle class, because average-earning Brits would no longer be able to afford to buy a home. Was he right?
According to the Halifax House Price Index, average UK house prices in December were up just 0.3 per cent compared to a year earlier. In other words, they basically haven’t grown at all – and they have fallen compared to headline inflation.
Indeed, compared to wage growth, homes have become more affordable.
Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, says: “The house price to income ratio was at its lowest in over a decade in December, striking a positive note for those looking to purchase their first home.”
Oh dear. But that’s just a nationwide average – how about in London, where Britain’s rich buy their million-pound homes?
In the capital, it’s a very different picture: house prices have fallen significantly. Property prices in London fell by 1.3 per cent over the course of 2025, Halifax says.
Indeed, in the neighbourhoods where the richest live, the drop is the most pronounced. In Kensington, average house prices are down about 10 per cent since the start of 2024, when Gary made his prediction. In pretty much every London borough, homes have become more affordable, as a multiple of average wages, compared to peak unaffordability in 2021.
These measures are not perfect, because they don’t factor in things like changes to the cost of mortgages over time. But even then, you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the middle classes are being pushed out of the property market at pace.
So by this yardstick at least, Gary is not quite the clairvoyant his fans would believe. And what of his other predictions? I suggest you watch his Youtube video from a year ago, entitled: “Will the rich leave the UK?”. You’re in for a treat.