La Belle France is voting for some beastly politics
IT’S the stuff Gallic political dramas are made of. A highly polarised campaign; a lively eleventh-hour debate between the candidates; a sense of emergency; a country cut in two as on the fringe of civil war. Incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy will face his socialist challenger François Hollande and France’s very fate is at stake.
But compare today’s electoral battle to 10 May 1981, when another François and another socialist, Mitterrand, defeated president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and took power, even inviting the Communist Party to join his first government. 2012 is no 1981. If Hollande wins a majority this coming Sunday, France will not wake up a democratic popular republic of the North Korean stripe, neither will it leave the EU or bring back the French franc. Both final contenders have much in common, though they promote two different visions for France. Crucially, they are both convinced that, despite an unprecedented financial and economic crisis, the solutions to restore growth and prosperity are to be found inside the system as we know it. Paris is neither Athens nor Rome – yet.
This long-expected duel between centre-right and centre-left candidates hides a far more worrying threat. I was living in London on 21 April 2002 –when Jean-Marie Le Pen qualified for a presidential run-off against Jacques Chirac. On 22 April this year, Le Pen’s daughter, Marine, got an outstanding 17.9 per cent and nearly 6.5m votes – better than her father by over 1 per cent. The news made front pages around the world. It went relatively quiet here in France. Ten years ago, millions had taken to the streets to fight fascism and save “la République”. This year, nothing. With 28.6 per cent and 27.1 per cent, Hollande and Sarkozy reached the second ballot and everything seemed safe enough. But for how long?
Earlier this week, a poll showed that 37 per cent of French voters share Le Pen fille’s values. The National Front’s leader hopes for revenge at the parliamentary elections on 10 June and 17 June. Despite an unfavourable electoral system, she might bank a couple of MPs – and she may well be one of them, representing a deprived area near Calais where she got some 35 per cent two weeks ago. This would once again make headlines worldwide. But the true challenge for mainstream parties is 2017 and the next presidential election. The likely victory of Hollande may provoke mayhem on the political right. The prospect of some Sarkozy supporters calling for an alliance with Le Pen’s troops can’t be excluded. A failure of the Left in office would also strengthen the populist leader. She may approach the next presidential contest in a much stronger position.
21 April 2017 risks repeating 21 April 2002. If we turn a blind eye, it will be too late. That’s a matter of worry for all of Europe, not just for France.
Franck Guillory is deputy editor in chief at JOL Press. www.jolpress.com