With expectations so low, Starmer might just carve out a win
From a news perspective, the Christmas break was more Deck the Halls than Silent Night.
Keir Starmer ended last year with approval ratings so low that critics were never going to call off the dogs in the spirit of good will to all men. The PM couldn’t even enjoy a toboggan run in Madeira without getting booed.
Meanwhile, the City minister’s property portfolio, grim economic data and Elon Musk’s decision to smash his way into UK politics all competed for our attention as Christmas gave way to New Year celebrations.
I retain a great deal of admiration for Musk and his contributions to the world (and often found myself a lone voice in his defence around the festive dinner table) though I certainly wish he’d stop hurling grenades into territory he doesn’t understand, inciting an audience he really shouldn’t be courting.
Had the Tesla tycoon kept his interventions to a few well-aimed jabs, he could have become a real pain in the government’s side. As it happens, his increasingly deranged posts make it easier for Downing Street to try and rise above it all.
Research by our new polling partner, Freshwater Strategy, shows the British public takes a dim view of Musk, giving him a net approval rating of minus 22. However, before Team Starmer takes too much comfort from that, we should point out that the PM’s own rating among UK voters is minus 36, making him slightly less popular than Donald Trump, at minus 34. The truth is that Musk is a sideshow. A noisy, entertaining or infuriating sideshow (depending on your perspective) but hardly central to the PM’s political fortunes.
There is only one area of focus that could possibly result in a turnaround of the government’s impressively low levels of support; the economy. Rising employment, sustained pay growth, lower inflation, a boost to consumer confidence and surging business investment are the only conditions that will restore Labour to a more respectable level of public support, but almost every decision the government has taken since coming into office has undermined the economy.
As our exclusive polling shows, voters aren’t expecting much in the way of an economic miracle from this government. I suppose the only silver lining is that with expectations so low, Starmer might just exceed them.