Voters think defections help Reform UK – and harm the Tories
Voters believe that political defections made by the likes of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman will help Reform UK in elections – and damage the Conservatives.
The latest Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy poll of UK voters has found that 44 per cent think the recent defections will increase Reform’s chances at the next general election, compared to 14 per cent who said it would damage them.
More than a third of voters (37 per cent) said they believed defections will hinder the Tories’ chances at elections rather than help them.
While the Tories gained on Reform in polling for national voting intentions, Badenoch’s approval ratings took a hit over January, making her less favourable than Nigel Farage in the view of the public.
When asked whether the Tory leader handled the string of major defections effectively, voters struck a pessimistic tone.
The majority of respondents (54 per cent) in the nationally representative poll said Badenoch had not performed well in her response to the damning defections.
Nearly a third of Tory voters (31 per cent) shared the view that the opposition leader struggled to respond to defections.
Reform spoils Badenoch’s rise
Reform voters’ support for a merger between Reform UK and the Conservatives has also been dented compared to polling in June 2025, with just 21 per cent of Britons now supporting a merger compared to 33 per cent last year.
Conservative voters were also less likely to support a pact compared to seven months ago.
The new polling will come as a blow for Badenoch after Tory strategists believed she had enjoyed a jump in support over recent months following punchy Prime Minister’s Questions performances and fiery speeches on the UK economy and foreign policy.
Badenoch also appeared to get ahead of Jenrick’s defection last month by sacking the former immigration minister from her shadow cabinet, having seen speech lines prepared by him.
Jenrick formally announced his defection later in the day, taking aim at a number of key Tory frontbenchers including shadow chancellor Mel Stride and shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel.
“The fact is the Tory party is so compromised it cannot speak for the country and oppose Labour’s madness,” Jenrick said.
“I can’t kid myself any more. The party hasn’t changed and it won’t. The bulk of the party don’t get it, and don’t have the stomach for the radical change this country needs.”
Other defectors included Braverman, who now sits with Reform in the House of Commons, and Andrew Rosindell.
Former vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi also announced his defection last month while Danny Kruger and Lee Anderson had been two notable former Tory MPs to join Farage’s party.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,250 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 30 January – 1 February 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.