Tories gain on Reform in polls yet Badenoch struggles for approval
The Conservatives have slightly narrowed Reform UK’s polling lead though Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch suffered a setback with a sharp decrease in approval ratings over the last month.
The Tories now lead Labour by five percentage points and trail Nigel Farage’s party by eight points in Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy’s monthly poll.
Reform UK enjoy 30 per cent of the vote share while the Tories have 22 per cent and Labour have 17 per cent, a two point decrease on last month.
The Greens and Lib Dems are tied on 14 per cent each, according to the survey of over 1,000 voters.
In head-to-head polling, Badenoch beat both Farage and Sir Keir Starmer, coming 11 points ahead of the Labour leader when voters were asked about their preferred Prime Minister.
Fresh polling may give the Tories a much-needed boost in morale just three months away from local elections, with hundreds of council seats at risk of being lost.
A number of councils scheduled to have elections may not do so following a reorganisation of local government and the abolition of some authorities.
Reform UK leaders have argued that the postponement of some elections is unlawful while other parties have also criticised both Labour and Tory-led councils for requesting delays.
Badenoch’s setback
But the rise in the Tories’ popularity among the UK electorate did not translate into a boost in approval ratings for Badenoch.
Her approval ratings sank by eight points compared to last month, dropping to a net score of -18.
This compared to -15 for Farage and -42 for Starmer, which was slightly higher than the reading of -44 posted last month.
The most popular party leader – and politician – was Andy Burnham on seven points.
The difference in scores is awkward for Starmer after the Manchester mayor was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, with Labour backbenchers rushing out to condemn the Prime Minister for his decision to stand in Burnham’s way.
The Liberal Democrats’ Sir Ed Davey’s net favourability rating was the strongest among party leaders on minus five while Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell, who is considered to be on the soft-left wing of the party, was on minus six.
The least popular British figure in the latest poll was Rachel Reeves on -43, which may reflect the public’s frustration with the business rates debacle and difficulties with higher food prices and energy bills.
President Trump was the least popular politician surveyed. The likes of Starmer, Badenoch and Farage have dialled up criticism of the US president in recent weeks after he threatened to impose tariffs on the UK for backing Greenland’s sovereignty.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,250 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 30 January – 1 February 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.