It’s no crystal ball, but polling is essential for democracy

At the time of writing, the political landscape in the UK seems as uncertain and changeable as the weather.

It all hinges on Theresa May’s Brexit plan, which, if not accepted by parliament, increases the likelihood of the UK barrelling towards a new referendum, or even a General Election.

And that means election polling.

Election polling in the commentariat has become a polarising subject, especially in the UK. It is routinely held to unrealistic expectations of precision, and then severely criticised when it fails to meet them – such as in the EU Referendum, the 2016 US presidential election, and the 2017 UK snap election.

However, while it’s easy to be dismissive and take polling for granted, we should be thankful, because the UK is particularly lucky with the freedom it has to conduct polls.

A new study into the polling practices of 133 countries from the World Association for Public Opinion Research and ESOMAR, the global association for the data and insight industry, reveals that six in 10 governments restrict the publication of pre-election polls for set periods before elections.

In Europe, for the most part the blackout periods are very short. We should be proud that the UK falls on the least restrictive end, with a blackout that only starts at midnight on the election day itself.

In contrast, Italian rules mean that polls cannot be published a full two weeks before an election. And all countries in the Latin American region have blackouts, with two thirds lasting a week or more.

Worryingly for the global pollster community, in the last five years more countries have increased restrictions on polling than have decreased them.

This is a trend we cannot afford to ignore, especially as rules on publication are often the first step towards further restrictions. In a world that has seen a significant increase in so-called “fake news” and echo chambers driven by social media, not to mention alleged election interference from foreign agents, polling can provide an effective counter-measure.

A strong democracy fundamentally requires that everyone has access to the same information.

Without polling data, media outlets become the only source of public sentiment, possibly gathered from dubious sources. Restrictions, embargoes, and a lack of polling in general can lead to an uninformed voting population, and perpetuate division as everyone chooses the facts that fit their own narrative.

What’s more, when public attitudes are released on national platforms, polling acts as a bridge between people and government. Block that bridge, as various countries are steadily attempting, and you lose a crucial avenue for politicians to engage with the electorate and respond to their concerns.

Wherever the UK is headed, if there is a vote there will be polls – and rather than dismiss them as inaccurate or unhelpful, we should be grateful that we in the UK have the freedom and resources to conduct them effectively.

Although they have proved disappointing on a few noteworthy occasions recently, globally they are right much more often than they are wrong. Polling is not just about predicting the future, it is a vital part of a functioning democracy.