Reform in poll surge as Starmer’s approval rating remains worst in UK
Reform UK has extended its lead over Labour in the polls as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings remained the worst of any top British political figure despite rallying calls for voters to back the government in defeating Nigel Farage.
The latest monthly Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy poll shows Nigel Farage’s Reform UK gaining two points in voter share since September, hitting 35 per cent.
Labour follow in second with a polling share of 20 per cent while the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats are on 18 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.
It is the highest voter share Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy has recorded for Reform so far.
Estimates based on the most recent polls show Reform storming to a majority of seats in the House of Commons, with Labour slumping getting just 74.
Dr Michael Turner, Director of Freshwater Strategy, said: “Reform’s surge is rewriting the political map. Currently on 35 per cent, if the party achieved this result at a General Election, it could win them an unprecedented 438 seats.
“This result wouldn’t only eclipse Labour’s current majority, it would be even larger than Labour’s historic 1997 victory – leaving Starmer’s Labour trailing far behind, on just 74 seats. Under this scenario Labour’s northern ‘Red Wall’ would be obliterated by Farage’s ‘Teal Army’.”
The Liberal Democrats would also become the third biggest party with 54 seats, ahead of just 20 to the Conservatives, pointing to diminishing levels of support for the Tories across the UK.
The new polling data will deal a fresh blow to Labour officials after its party conference offered it a chance to reset policy and re-connect with its disgruntled support base.
The next two months could be more challenging for the government, with a fiscal hole likely of around £30bn keeping the Treasury and Chancellor Rachel Reeves on edge.
Starmer approval ratings in the dust
Beyond low growth forecasts and a battle against high inflation, the government is also set to face further intense scrutiny over the effectiveness of its immigration policy changes as well as discussions around possible reforms to welfare payments, special education needs and net zero policies.
Questions over Starmer’s political judgment, a decision on a mandatory digital ID card and further planning reforms are also set to test Labour’s ability to push back against opposition and implement policies at a quicker pace.
Starmer has taken a more aggressive tone on Reform in the last week, calling its immigration policies “racist” and labelling its agenda “politics of grievance”.
His speech centred on the claims that Farage “doesn’t like Britain” and that the insurgent party is “the enemy” – while the Reform leader said he believes the Prime Minister should feel “ashamed” about his comments.
Polling by Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy was conducted after Labour’s party conference, which saw Starmer intensify his criticism of Farage.
But new attacks made by the Prime Minister have done little to sway the electorate.
Starmer’s approval ratings improved by just one point to minus 40 in September while Farage’s ratings edged up to minus three.
Kemi Badenoch, who is set to deliver a speech to Tory party members on Wednesday, saw her approval ratings remain in the red at minus 16.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,251 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 3–5 October 2025. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.