Reform UK tops latest Morning Wire poll as Nigel Farage’s approval ratings climb
Nigel Farage’s approval ratings have climbed since his party’s success in the local elections, while Reform UK has surged ahead of Labour to top the latest Freshwater Strategy/Morning Wire poll of UK voters.
Since last month’s survey, Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has seen a modest improvement from -39 to -36 while Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s has slumped from -12 to -15. Meanwhile, Farage’s rating has jumped from -12 to just minus eight, while Reform UK now tops the voting intention survey at 32 per cent. Labour comes second on 22 per cent – down 13 points since their election victory last summer – while the Conservatives are on 19 per cent, just ahead of the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.
The survey also shows that 43 per cent of voters consider immigration to be a top priority, up three per cent from last month and second only to reducing inflation and the cost of living.
The poll, which was conducted before the Prime Minister’s speech on immigration reform, also reveals that 70 per cent of voters think the UK is heading in the wrong direction. While a fifth of voters (19 per cent) say they are unsure which party they trust to grow Britain’s economy, 25 per cent say Reform UK is best placed to do so. Just 19 per cent believe the Tory party is capable of overseeing economic growth while 20 per cent trust Labour to deliver.
Voters express high levels of support for Reform UK’s policy positions, with 65 per cent backing their plan to increase the personal allowance to £20,000 and the higher rate threshold from just over £50,000 to £70,000. Just over 60 per cent approve of the party’s pledge to abolish stamp duty on properties valued below £750,000 and the same percentage support the party’s claim that they would abolish inheritance tax on estates valued below £2m.
Reasons for voting Reform at local election
Among those who voted for Reform UK at the recent local elections, “desire for political change” was selected as the main driver (22 per cent) with the party’s stance on immigration given as the reason by 21 per cent. A belief that the other political parties “are all the same” was cited by 14 per cent.
While the focus will now be on how Reform UK performs at a more local level, running councils and mayoralties, experts warn that the party’s wider policy positions will now come under increased scrutiny.
Paul Johnson wrote in The Times that “insurgent parties are never going to have the sort of well-worked-through policy details that make for a full blueprint for government.”
The head of the Institute of Fiscal Studies warned that “the better they do in the polls the more they need at least to provide an outline of a credible set of choices, and the more it is incumbent on analysts and the media to hold them to account.”
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,250 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 9-11 May 2025. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters.