Labour optimism evaporates after bruising seven months
Labour would see its majority wiped out if the country were to head to the polls today as voters turn on Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves over their handling of the economy, exclusive polling for Morning Wire has found.
After romping to victory with a majority of 174 in July, Labour’s vote share has slumped by six points while the Conservative party has notched a four point uplift, polling by Freshwater Strategy for Morning Wire shows.
The shift would see Labour lose around 100 seats if an election was held today, putting them on course to win around 315. The Tory party meanwhile would win around 218 seats.
“Keir Starmer’s honeymoon evaporated almost overnight, and Labour’s vote share has plummeted since last year’s general election,” said Matthew Lesh, UK country manager for Freshwater Strategy.
“Our estimates suggest that, if an election were held today, Labour would fall 11 seats short of an outright majority—forcing them to seek support from parties such as the Liberal Democrats, Greens, the SNP, or other independents.”
The decline underscores the challenges facing the government as it looks to reset its agenda following a tax-raiding Budget in October and stagnation in the economy.
While Reeves and Starmer have put growth at the heart of their economic agenda, economists have slashed their outlook for GDP growth in recent months.
A £70bn annual spending splurge set out at the Budget, combined with the threat of tariffs from the US, has also raised fears of a return of inflation this year.
The Morning Wire Freshwater poll found that cutting inflation and easing the cost of living pressure remained the top priority issue for voters. However, some 70 per cent of voters have suggested the UK was “heading in the wrong direction”.
While the Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have slumped since July, Freshwater’s poll suggests Starmer had seen a three point bump in popularity since the beginning of the year, taking him to a net approval rating of -33. Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage currently sit on a net approval rating of -10.
Starmer’s uptick lifts him ahead of both Elon Musk and President Donald Trump, who he trailed at the beginning of January. Musk’s approval rating among British voters has cratered 16 points since the beginning of last month.
Last night a separate poll by YouGov put Reform a single point ahead of Labour, for the first time. The poll placed Nigel Farage’s party on 25 per cent, with Labour pushed into second on 24 per cent and the Tories on 21 per cent.