A win on the world stage masks mounting trouble at home
Keir Starmer has won plaudits for his decision to increase defence spending (albeit by less than the amount he’s given Ed Miliband to run a pretend energy company) and voters appear to be firmly behind the PM’s decision to fund this modest splurge by raiding the international development budget.
The latest Morning Wire Freshwater Strategy poll shows that only the lily-livered LibDems and peacenik Greens oppose the plan. Labour, Tory and even SNP voters give the move a thumbs up, and while the government will insist that politics never came into it (heaven forbid) Labour strategists will certainly note that among Reform voters support for the policy stands at a whopping 70 per cent. So, all in all, Labour can consider this move to have been well played.
But it is only one move, and politics is a Rubik’s cube; Starmer might have earned some praise with a canny turn, but elsewhere on the cube he’s in trouble. Our polling shows no change in the PM’s dire personal approval ratings (though he’ll be pleased to see that he’s regained a slim lead on Kemi Badenoch as preferred PM) and when it comes to the economy (a more pressing concern than Ukraine) Brits are still in a gloomy frame of mind. Most continue to believe the country is going in the wrong direction and are braced for their own finances to deteriorate over the year ahead.
This view is shared by an alarmingly high number of businesses, as our other front page story makes clear. Data and survey results from the likes of the CBI, S&P and BDO combine to paint a bleak image. S&P’s latest purchasing managers’ index showed staffing levels in the manufacturing sector falling in five out of the past six months as a result of “weak demand, low client confidence and rising cost pressures” while the CBI predicts that private sector activity will fall for a fourth consecutive quarter in the three months up to May. Accountants BDO say that firms are slashing jobs and consultancy Hanbury Strategy has issued a fresh warning on the impact of changes to employment law, with 34 per cent of company bosses polled citing the looming Employment Rights Bill as the biggest issue facing their business.
We want our PM to lead on the world stage, and we wish him well in that arena, but we also need him to be conscious of the mess he’s presiding over at home.